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ICICI Securities Report
Our Q1 FY24E estimates suggest a good quarter for Bharti Airtel Ltd., aided by strong average revenue per user growth of 2.9% QoQ to Rs 199, and continued strong performance for non-mobile segment.
Airtel Africa's performance may be hindered by Nigerian currency devaluation, while underlying growth is likely to be healthy.
Reliance Jio's subs growth to accelerate with likely nine million net add; however, ARPU growth may be restricted by the adoption of unlimited data by 5G users.
We expect cost inflation to be moderate for Bharti Airtel, RJio as they capitalise the initial 5G-related operating cost. Vodafone Idea Ltd. may see Ebitda dip despite revenue growth due to normalisation of network opex and inflation.
Tata Communications Ltd. underlying data performance may be good with 2.5% QoQ growth, while reported growth is likely to have revenue from The Switch merger (estimated Rs 1 billion). Data Ebitda margin to dip 70 basis points QoQ due to higher operating cost and only breakeven for The Switch.
Indus Towers Ltd.'s tenancy adds to be strong (+3,500) led by Bharti Airtel's rural 4G rollout; we estimate nil provisioning for receivables from Vodafone Idea.
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