Stock Picks Today, March 5: L&T, Coal India, Sun Pharma, India Trucking Cycle And More On Brokerages' Radar

A host of global and domestic brokerages have rolled out fresh views on L&T, Coal India, Sun Pharma, India Trucking Cycle and several other companies on Thursday.

ICICI Securities on Shadowfax Tech

• Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 175
• Delivering value: Market share gain-led re-rating in the medium term
• Market share gains in E-commerce shipments
• Continued network expansion and D2C to drive next phase
• Hyperlocal - the next structural growth engine
• Operating leverage-led structural margin expansion
• Additional optionality through infrastructure leverage
• Asset-light, selective asset control drive structural RoCE advantage

Citi on Coal India

• Maintain Neutral; Hike TP to Rs 430 from Rs 415
• Adding Upside 90-Day Catalyst Watch
• Higher international coal prices should be positive for Coal India
• See potentially higher e-auction prices
• 30% discount to spot import parity prices suggests e-auction price at Rs 3,000/t Vs Rs 2,435/t in Q3
• Estimate every Rs 100/t change in e-auction prices impacts EPS by approximate 2%

Jefferies on L&T

• Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 4,500 from Rs 4,715.
• Quantifying sensitivity of potential impact.
• Global E&C companies with ME exposure, incl. L&T, are down between 10-24% since the Iran-US-Israel conflict began.
• 37% of L&T's order book is from ME, with Saudi at a lion's share of 75%+
• A month of no work would likely impact FY26E EPS by 6-8%.
• L&T should recover most of the share price losses between order flow growth, margin stability and 5-year strategy plan that is due to be unveiled in May 2026.

ALSO READ: L&T Shares Tumble 7% Amid Middle East Conflict — Is This The Right Time To Buy?

Jefferies on India Energy

• Base case is a short blockade of Strait of Hormuz.
• India receives 50%/30% of its crude/LNG via the Strait.
• OMCs are most impacted with HPCL > IOCL > BPCL.
• ONGC's consol EPS declines with rising crude due to HPCL stake.
• Reliance is a marginal beneficiary of higher GRM if windfall tax is not reimposed.
• Stoppage of Qatar's LNG production hurts Petronet LNG > Gujarat Gas > IGL and MGL.
• GAIL's gas transmission volumes are negatively impacted, but trading margins could rise.

BofA on India Trucking Cycle

• Trucks on an overdrive.
• Industry structure in sweet spot.
• Regulatory framework for truck industry too is well calibrated.
• Exports, Buses and LCVs structural growth layers.
• Reiterate Buy on Tata Motors CV (Top pick) and Ashok Leyland.
• Industry up cycle has just begun; see case for earnings upgrades as well valuation overshoot.

BofA on AB Capital

• Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 380
• Poised for broad-based growth and profitability improvement
• Well-positioned for strong growth in lending book
• Sustained momentum in AMC/Insurance businesses
• RoA guidance of 2.5%/2-2.2% for NBFC/HFC

Jefferies on Insurance

• Transition to Ind AS: P&L May Change and CSM to be Closer to VNB & VIF
• Indian life insurerssurprised by advancement of timing and may ask for original time of Apr-27 instead of Apr-26
• P&L/ BS will change materially, but CSM will be closer to DCF-based nos like IF, EV & VNB
• Paper clarifies on aspects for Par-products
• Solvency Capital will be taken separately
• Can release capital for larger players, but draw down for aggressive players

Kotak on Bajaj Finance

• Maintain Add with TP of Rs 1,110.
• Looking beyond quarters.
• Market seems to focus on near-term variables.
• Leveraging Fin-AI for meeting long-range plans.
• Remain assertive on Bajaj Finance's ability to sustain high growth and RoEs despite a large balance sheet.

HSBC on Metal and Cement

• Middle East impact: Cost inflation for cement.
• No impact on coal or India aluminum; some disruption to steel.
• Coal price increase should drive pet coke higher.
• Cement prices need to rise by 4-5% in April-May to counter energy inflation.
• India steel no direct impact; European steel costs to increase on higher gas costs.
• Aluminum is most impacted if Middle East disruption continues; alumina could move lower.

UBS India Strategy - Hartmut Issel

• Maintain an Attractive rating for Indian equities, on back of robust macroeconomic fundamentals and proactive policy support.
• Government has front-loaded growth measures.
• Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates and added liquidity to the system.
• Expect these actions to keep GDP growth near its trend pace.
• Medium-term outlook remains constructive.
• Expect single-digit EPS growth for Nifty for FY26, accelerating to double-digit growth in FY27 and FY28.
• Added HPCL and IndiGo to portfolio and removed SBI Cards.

JPMorgan on Ports

• Adani Ports – Initiate Overweight with TP of Rs 1,944.
• JSW Infra – Initiate Overweight with TP of Rs 310.
• Sailing on structural growth.
• Structural growth anchored by trade growth and policy support.
• High entry barriers and structural pricing power.
• Efficiency gains and modal shift are additional catalysts.
• Adani Ports: Scale and diversification drive growth.
• JSW Infra: Strong growth backed by execution track-record of JSW group.

Goldman Sachs on Lupin

• Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 2,275.
• Management guided for US business revenues to exceed US$1bn next year.
• Growth driven by momentum in complex products like injectables and biosimilars.
• At least five launches targeted over the next five years.
• Lupin is positioned to benefit from GLP-1 launches.

Goldman Sachs on Sun Pharma

• Maintain Sell with TP of Rs 1,550.
• Innovative Medicines Remain a Key Growth Driver.
• Emerging Markets and ROW – Sustained Outperformance+
• Focus remains on profitable growth.
• In M&A, EPS accretion is not a near-term requirement; long-term value creation is prioritised.

UBS on IT Sector

• 4% depreciation of INR could translate into a 12-21% uplift in EPS across companies.
• 13% depreciation in the rupee could drive a materially larger 30-45% EPS uplift.
• This is assuming everything else remains the same.

Jefferies on Biocon

• Maintain Hold with TP of Rs 360.
• Met the mgmt. of Biocon; following are key takeaways –
• Deleveraged and strengthened B/S, major investments in capex, and infra largely complete across the Biocon Group.
• Strong pipeline in biosimilars, insulins, GLPs, and complex generic.
• Focus on improving Ebitda margins and FCF generation.
• Confident of overcoming growing competition in the biosimilar market, due to vertically integrated and global scale of operations.

UBS on India Macro

• Should oil prices rise no higher than $80, the inflation impulse would appear manageable.
• Impact of rising oil prices would be more pronounced on the goods trade deficit and would put further pressure on the rupee.
• Elevated oil prices for longer could push USDINR towards 95 by Q2.
• If Middle East tensions de-escalate over the next few days, USDINR could edge back towards 90.
• $10/bbl average increase in global crude prices would widen India's CAD by 0.4% of GDP.
• 10% change in crude oil prices could impact CPI inflation by around 30 bps if the government were to pass the full increase on to consumers.
• 10% increase in average crude oil prices would pull down GDP growth by 15 bps, if fuel costs are passed on to consumers.

JPMorgan on Coal India

• Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 397.
• Stock seeing relative outperformance driven by expectations of higher e-auction prices
• Sensitivity: every 10% increase in e-auction premium for COAL increases fair value by 2-2.5%
• Apart from the e-auction tailwind, fundamentals are not yet looking strong for Coal India.

ALSO READ: Five Stocks To Buy: Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma And More | March 5, 2026

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