Shadowfax Technologies share price will be in focus on Wednesday after brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities initiated its coverage on the stock and expected an upside potential of nearly 10%.
Shadowfax Technologies is the second-largest player in India's largely duopolistic third-party e-commerce logistics market.
Kotak Equities expects the company to outgrow the broader 3PL industry at 1.4X growth over FY2026-30 and gain ~900 bps of market share during the period. The growth is expected to be driven by its strong exposure to Meesho and its ability to gain share across relatively underpenetrated segments.
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It expects the company to deliver a revenue CAGR of 31% over FY2026-30, aided by around 32% growth each in Express and hyperlocal shipments with relatively stable realizations. It factors in Meesho's in-house logistics (Valmo) share to stabilize at higher 60% levels from closer to 50% levels at present.
The brokerage firm's assumptions bake in ~420 bps improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin driven by normalization of loss shipments, improving efficiency in partner expenses and back-ended support from transportation expenses.
Kotak Institutional Equities initiated its coverage on Shadowfax Technologies shares with an ‘Add' rating and a target price of Rs 310, valuing its Express business at 27X two-year forward EV/EBITDA and at 10% discount to Delhivery's FV multiple.
“This reflects margin pressure from higher dependence on Meesho (2X/1.5X that of Delhivery in FY2026/28E). Cost-deflation levers and superior asset turnover ratios position it well to mitigate this key risk,” Kotak Equities said.
Key risks include increased concentration to Meesho and pricing pressure from customers.
On Tuesday, Shadowfax Technologies share price ended 3.83% higher at Rs 283.25 apiece on the BSE.
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