Multinational brokerage firm Bernstein has initiated coverage on top power companies and placed bullish share price targets, expecting rapid electrification.
Analysts said India's energy security has been tested twice in quick succession: disruptions around Russian oil, and by the Iran war. Like China, India is resource-poor in oil and gas but resource-rich in coal and solar, making electrification the real structural answer. The government's policy imperative is to accelerate thermal and nuclear capacity, while also strengthening renewables, storage, and the grid.
Bernstein said the best opportunities lie in thermal, nuclear, storage, and grid-linked names, rather than pure-play renewables alone with an exception for diversified renewable players that have strong balance sheets, access to capital, and presence across the value chain.
Price Actions
- Adani Power Ltd. – Initiate 'Outperform' with target price of Rs 177, an upside of 18% over previous close
- JSW Energy Ltd. – Initiate 'Outperform' with target price of Rs 575, an upside of 19%
- Tata Power Co. – Initiate 'Outperform' with target price of Rs 443, an upside of 15%
- NTPC Green Energy Ltd. – Initiate 'Underperform' with target price of Rs 80, a downside of 16%
ALSO READ: India Sees Power Use Surging To Record, Adding To Energy Crisis
Adani Power
Adani Power is well positioned in thermal generation with a clear right to win, backed by early equipment tie‑ups with BHEL and L&T, easing supply constraints faced by peers, analysts said. Its brownfield expansion strategy keeps capex among the lowest in the sector. State tenders continue to favour thermal capacity for resource adequacy, with limited competition supporting equity IRRs of over 20%.
JSW Energy
JSW Energy's strength lies in disciplined capital allocation, reflected in its selective participation in renewable tenders and willingness to invest in thermal assets when required. Its thermal‑storage strategy remains under‑appreciated, with early moves into pumped storage and meaningful optionality from the KSK asset. The West Bengal project alone adds over $2 billion to valuation.
Tata Power
Tata Power stands out in distribution, being the only private player to successfully operate a state discom, positioning it well for future privatisation opportunities. Its solar PV business appears undervalued, supported by strong brand trust in a long‑tenure consumer product. While the sector may face oversupply beyond FY27, the valuation gap versus peers remains attractive. The key overhang is the Mundra plant shutdown, though a resolution with Gujarat appears likely.
NTPC Green
NTPC Green benefits from access to low‑cost capital, a critical advantage in renewables. However, execution has lagged expectations, with concerns around EPC‑led land and transmission arrangements. Rich valuations for a sub‑scale business and aggressive bidding at record‑low solar tariffs and green ammonia projects remain key challenges.
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
