Nilesh Shah, Managing Director of Kotak AMC, has shared his insights on JPMorgan's recent projection for India's benchmark index, the Nifty 50. The brokerage expects a the Nifty 50 to hit 30,000 by the end of the current financial year (FY26). Shah emphasised the potential for earnings growth in FY26.
"Undoubtedly, we are seeing a phase where earnings growth is likely to be in the high single digits rather than low double digits," he said, attributing it to the significant expansion of the earnings base over FY24 and FY25, leading to a consolidation phase.
He further explained, "If we see coordinated action from regulators and the government, it will be pro-growth." Shah highlighted several supportive measures, including the RBI's liquidity infusion up to FY26 and unexpected interest rate cuts. "There is hope for one more rate cut," he added, pointing to relaxed guidelines for infrastructure financing and capital release for banks.
Shah also mentioned the easing of priority sector lending norms for small finance banks and relaxed gold financing rules. "At SEBI's end, the R&D fund of 1 lakh crore, if executed well, could create growth opportunities," he said, underscoring the pro-growth stance emerging from various regulatory actions.
Reflecting on the broader economic environment, Shah noted, "Macros have been stable, and the monsoon has been good." He expressed optimism about the possibility of earnings upside, stating, "We believe FY26 earnings growth for Nifty 50 is likely to be in the high single digits, with midcaps delivering double-digit earnings growth."
Earlier last week, JPMorgan projected that the Nifty 50 could reach as high as 30,000 in a bullish scenario, driven by an expected earnings recovery. The investment bank anticipates a 7% year-on-year growth in earnings for Nifty 50 companies and other firms on its radar in the first quarter of FY26.
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