March has historically been a relatively constructive month for Indian equities. Over the past decade, the final month of the financial year has produced repeat winners such as IndiGo parent InterGlobe Aviation and NHPC, while companies like Vodafone Idea and IDFC First Bank have consistently struggled.
Market In March Through The Decade
A look at the last 10 years shows that the Nifty 50 has closed March in the green eight times, delivering an average return of 0.8%. While the average gain appears modest, the consistency is notable. In fact, the index delivered strong gains of more than 4% in 2016, 2019, 2022 and 2025, underlining that March can turn into a momentum month under favourable conditions.
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The broader markets tell a more volatile story. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 have closed in positive territory six times in the past decade. However, their average returns have been far lower, 0.3% for midcaps and minus 0.5% for smallcaps, reflecting greater swings.
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The upside has been meaningful in strong years such as 2016, 2017, 2019, 2022 and 2025, when gains exceeded 4%. But 2020 remains a sharp reminder of risk, with midcaps falling 30% and smallcaps tumbling 37% during the pandemic-driven crash.
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Sectoral Performance In March Since 2016
Sectorally, defensives and commodity-linked themes have shown greater resilience in March. FMCG has been one of the most consistent performers over the decade, delivering solid average gains and closing positive in seven out of 10 years. Energy and metals have also fared well, often benefiting from global pricing cycles and fiscal year-end positioning.
| NSE Indices | In Green (Out of 10) | Average Returns (%) |
|---|---|---|
| FMCG | 7 | 2.6% |
| Bank | 7 | 0.2% |
| Metal | 7 | 1.3% |
| Energy | 7 | 2.1% |
| Pharma | 5 | 0.7% |
| Real Estate | 5 | 0.4% |
| IT | 4 | -0.7% |
| Auto | 4 | -1.9% |
Banking has managed frequent positive closes but with muted average returns, reflecting consolidation rather than sharp rallies. On the other hand, IT and auto have historically struggled in March, both in terms of frequency of gains and average performance.
Gainers In March
At the stock level, certain names stand out for both consistency and magnitude of gains. Adani Energy Solutions has delivered average March gains of 13% while closing in the green seven times over the last decade. Solar Industries India has averaged 10%, followed by CG Power and Industrial Solutions at 8%. Aviation major InterGlobe Aviation and conglomerate Adani Enterprises have both averaged 7%, while Torrent Power, NHPC, APL Apollo Tubes, Nestle India and Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone have delivered steady mid-single-digit gains on average.
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Lossers In March
On the other end of the spectrum, several stocks have repeatedly underperformed. Vodafone Idea has averaged a 10% decline in March and has closed in the red seven times over the last 10 years. nox Wind, Apollo Hospitals Enterprise, IDFC First Bank and Samvardhana Motherson International have also recorded frequent declines, each averaging losses of around 5–6%. Highly leveraged balance sheets, sector-specific headwinds or structural challenges have often weighed on these counters during year-end rebalancing.
So what could this March bring?
Historically, the Nifty enters March with a slight positive bias, supported by portfolio adjustments, tax planning flows and institutional rebalancing before the financial year closes. Large caps tend to hold up better in uncertain global conditions, while midcaps and smallcaps outperform only when risk appetite is strong.
Investors will be closely watching global cues, commodity prices, foreign institutional investor activity and earnings commentary for the upcoming financial year.
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