Sales of automakers may grow at a slower pace in August as Kerala floods and mandatory driver's licences at the time of purchase of two-wheelers in West Bengal could have a short-term impact, according to a poll of analysts conducted by BloombergQuint.
For passenger vehicles, growth is expected to slow down on a higher base, recent price hikes and consumer awaiting new launches this festive season.
Nomura expects a flattish year-on-year growth for passenger vehicles and the two-wheeler industry in August. Motilal Oswal's dealer checks reiterated the trend. Dealers indicated that two-wheeler and passenger vehicle retail sales fell as much as 50 percent across companies after the Kerala floods.
Overall, the rural market remains buoyant for tractors and two-wheelers, according to the poll.
For trucks, the impact of higher weight cap on retail sales is gradually subsiding, Motilal Oswal said, based on feedback from dealers.
According to Nomura, Motilal Oswal and BloombergQuint research, here are the factors that will have an impact on the sales growth of individual companies:
Ashok Leyland
- Sales growth of medium and heavy trucks to slow down on higher load caps and Kerala floods.
Bajaj Auto
- Domestic demand and buoyant export to aid sales growth.
Royal Enfield
- Impact of Kerala floods partly offset by dispatches normalising in August after falling in July.
Maruti Suzuki
- Kerala floods and lower exports to impact overall numbers. Its rural sales are expected to grow 8-10 percent.
M&M
- Growth for utility vehicles and tractors to slow down in August despite a strong rural sentiment.
Tata Motors
- Light trucks and passenger vehicle segments to sustain momentum.
TVS Motors
- A sharp decline in sales of mopeds to impact domestic growth. Strong exports and motorcycle sales in the domestic market to aid growth.
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