As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattle global markets and push oil prices higher, veteran investor Samir Arora is urging calm. The founder and fund manager of Helios Capital said the current volatility — while dramatic in headlines — is unlikely to leave a lasting imprint on equity markets. “I am not worried,” Arora said in an interview with NDTV Profit. Drawing on three decades of market experience, he argued that geopolitical flare-ups typically reverse quickly. “Oil prices will rise and then they will fall. Markets correct and then recover. Stock markets are very cold-blooded — they bounce back fast.”
He cautioned against attempting tactical exits during such periods. “It looks smart to sell when markets are down 2%, but three days later they are up 1% and the story is over. I've tried this all my life. It doesn't work. Just chill.”
On artificial intelligence though, Arora was clear that the impact is structural and ongoing — not a weekend development. “AI is a bigger issue than all these events,” he said. He pushed back against the notion that AI-driven disruption is a fresh development triggered by recent corporate layoffs.
“AI has been around. It didn't happen this weekend,” he said, reiterating his long-held view that technology-led disruption will gradually reshape businesses and sectors. While certain companies may face pressure, he noted that their weight in the broader market remains limited.
ALSO READ: Red Alert For IT: Infosys, TCS, Coforge Among 10 Stocks Seeing Target Cuts By Citi
India's Relative Strength
On India specifically, Arora highlighted the market's resilience in February. Despite a nearly 20% decline in IT stocks, headline indices remained broadly flat, supported by sectoral strength elsewhere. Foreign institutional investor (FII) flows were not negative and the currency held steady.
Citing recent data, he noted that while India saw significant outflows in 2025, the broader Emerging Asia region also experienced capital withdrawals. This year-to-date, Korea has seen sizable outflows even as parts of its market surged.
His broader point was capital flows often follow momentum. “If a market has nearly tripled, investors will trim exposure. That's logical.” Over time, he expects India to retain a meaningful share of emerging market allocations.
Tariffs and Oil: Manageable Risks
Arora dismissed concerns around tariffs, arguing that current rates are significantly lower than recent peaks and broadly comparable globally. “Three weeks ago tariffs were much higher. Today they are lower. Why panic about whether it will be 10% or 15%?”
On crude oil, he said India's fuel pricing framework smoothens volatility. Oil marketing companies may temporarily absorb price shocks, but over longer periods the system operates like a “running account,” balancing gains and losses. “If oil is high for 15 or 30 days, it doesn't change the country's overall balance sheet in any meaningful way,” he said.
In defense, he prefers companies with steady, visible businesses over long-gestation mega projects. He cited Bharat Electronics as an example of a business model he finds easier to understand.
ALSO READ: Iran War Live Updates: F-15 Crashes In Kuwait; Israel Strikes Hezbollah In Lebanon
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
