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ICICI Securities Report
We expect Ambuja Cements Ltd. to further improve its Ebitda/tonne (say by more than Rs 150/ tonne over CY21-24E) led by a better market mix (rising share of North) and increased cost efficiencies, and narrow its Ebitda/tonne gap versus peers.
The recent five million tonne Marwa-Mundwa expansion would not only enable Ambuja Cements to sustain its market share, but also likely improve overall Ebitda/tonne by more than Rs 50/tonne, given higher profitability in North / West, better cost efficiencies of the new plant and additional government incentives.
Increasing share of waste heat recovery system from 6 megawatt to ~90 megawatt by CY23E, and higher efficiencies via master supply agreement with ACC Ltd. could drive another more than Rs 100/tonne Ebitda/tonne expansion, in our view.
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