German Recession Forecast as DIW Sees Contraction This Quarter
German Recession Forecast as DIW Sees Contraction This Quarter
(Bloomberg) --
The German economy probably shrank again this quarter, tipping it into recession amid a deepening slump in manufacturing, according to the DIW institute.
It forecasts a 0.2% fall in output in the three months through September after a decline of 0.1% in the previous quarter. A monthly DIW gauge of activity was unchanged at 89 points in September, pointing to another contraction.
Germany’s Federal Statistics Office is due to publish preliminary data on third-quarter GDP on Nov. 14. The median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey this month is for the economy to stagnate in the period.
Read More:
Key points from DIW report published Thursday:
- Although business sentiment has deteriorated, industry orders have stabilized
- Manufacturing output will nonetheless shrink in the third quarter
- Services, by contrast, are making a positive contribution to growth
- Consumer services companies profiting from increasing household purchasing power
- Employment growth has clearly slowed but wages have markedly increased
- Disposable income -- and private consumption -- boosted by fiscal measures
To contact the reporter on this story: Iain Rogers in Berlin at irogers11@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chad Thomas at cthomas16@bloomberg.net, Iain Rogers, Fergal O'Brien
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
