Ray Dalio says it is already too late to stop the global shift away from the United States, as countries and companies reduce economic and financial ties in response to rising conflict, unsustainable imbalances, and weakening trust in the US-led system.
“It's already too late,” Dalio wrote in a new note, referring to efforts to stabilise trade relations and restore confidence in the global order. He said exporters and importers are no longer waiting for fresh negotiations or policy resets. Instead, they are moving ahead with plans that assume reduced interdependence.
Dalio said the shift began with the US-China conflict but has widened to include countries across the world. He warned that producers, investors, and governments are building systems to operate independently of the US, across trade, capital flows, geopolitics, and defence.
He said many now see the US economic model—built on high consumption, large trade deficits, and debt issuance—as unsustainable. In his view, assuming that countries can continue lending to the US and expect to be repaid in hard currency is “naive thinking.”
“It's already too late to count on the old arrangements,” he wrote. “New plans must be made.”
Dalio explained that excessive trade and capital imbalances are creating risks that must be corrected. He linked this to a broader breakdown in the monetary system, domestic political stability, and the international order. He described the shift as part of a recurring historical cycle, with the current phase marked by conflict, rebalancing, and reduced global coordination.
He also said there is a growing chance that the US will be structurally bypassed as other countries form new systems around it. “New synapses” are emerging, he said, suggesting that global flows of capital, trade, and influence are being rewired.
Dalio proposed a “3-Part, 3-Percent Solution” to address US debt issues in his new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, but warned that political dysfunction and rising volatility are making orderly change harder to achieve.
He urged investors and policymakers to shift focus away from short-term market moves and towards planning for long-term structural change. Without calm, coordinated responses, he warned, the world risks moving deeper into disorder.
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
