India's Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran has indicated that the country's GDP growth for the ongoing financial year could end 0.2–0.4 percentage points higher than earlier projected, driven by recent positive policy developments and easing domestic headwinds.
On the outlook for India's GDP, Nageswaran said, “In the couple of days since the US-India agreement came into the picture, I did say that there is an upside risk to my range of 6.8 to 7.2, or let's say the midpoint is 7. Now I can think of an upside that could last anywhere between 20 and 40 basis points.”
Speaking at the NDTV Profit Conclave 2026, the CEA noted that the past week had seen an unusually dense flow of major economic developments which is equivalent to “three to six months of news” with significant agreements concluded between India and the US, and India and the EU. These, he said, had helped diminish several previously anticipated headwinds.
He added that although the upside momentum was visible, revisions to the official GDP forecast would require patience. The government is awaiting data from the first quarter of the new financial year, alongside the release of the revised GDP series and updated base year. These datasets, he said, will provide crucial clarity before any formal upward revision is considered.
Nageswaran also cautioned that global risks continue to warrant careful assessment. Rising volatility across global financial markets, along with evolving geopolitical uncertainties, could generate spillover effects for emerging economies, including India. These factors, he noted, are unfolding alongside India's domestic gains and must be weighed before committing to a higher growth projection.
“All things remaining the same,” he said, the outlook appears more favourable than at the time of the Economic Survey, but any upgrade will be “calibrated” and data‑driven.
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