India's recent GDP data has come under scrutiny after the government's new national accounts series showed a sharp revision in nominal GDP estimates for earlier quarters. SBI Research, in its latest Ecowrap, has argued that the revisions reflect the change in the GDP base year and methodology rather than an unexplained adjustment.
The report comes amid a debate over India's 7.8% real GDP growth in Q1 FY27, after questions were raised about the sharp difference between the latest estimates and those under the previous GDP series.
According to SBI Research, India has recorded 239 GDP revisions across 70 quarters since FY09, with 134 revisions being upward and 105 downward. It said the history of revisions does not show a consistent direction across different periods.
The report also highlighted the scale of the changes under the new series. Between Q1 FY23 and Q2 FY26, nominal GDP was revised downward by Rs 41.8 lakh crore, while real GDP was revised upward by Rs 372 lakh crore. SBI said the two changes need to be viewed together rather than treating the nominal revision in isolation.
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At the sectoral level, around Rs 39 lakh crore of the downward GVA revision was concentrated in trade, hotels, transport and communication. This was partly offset by a Rs 13.6 lakh crore upward revision in financial, insurance, real estate and business services. SBI attributed the changes to the use of newer datasets covering informal and unincorporated businesses, along with additional corporate and administrative information.
SBI Research also examined the GDP deflator, another area of debate given the divergence from headline inflation indicators such as CPI and WPI. Its estimates broadly tracked the official sectoral deflators, although the methodology and price measures used in national accounts remain an important part of the discussion.
The report further pointed to high-frequency indicators and investment data as broadly consistent with strong economic activity. It noted that incremental private-sector investment has averaged around Rs 3.5 lakh crore annually since FY23, compared with Rs 3.3 lakh crore over the six years through FY19.
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