- Rupee hit a record low of 90.13 against the US dollar at Wednesday's open
- The rupee has risen over 1% in five sessions and 1.5% in the past month
- RBI and government support exporters by keeping the dollar bid in markets
The rupee breached the psychologically crucial 90-per-dollar mark at the open on Wednesday, sliding 25 paise to a fresh low of 90.13 against the US dollar. The currency has been under steady pressure, with the dollar–rupee pair gaining over 1% in the last five sessions, rising more than 1.5% over the past month, and marking its sixth straight month of upward momentum.
Traders say the rupee's decline has been driven by a mix of policy intent and market forces. According to market participants, the government and the RBI appear inclined to support exporters, keeping the dollar well bid in recent days. State-owned banks were seen consistently buying dollars at higher levels on Tuesday, signalling that intent. A deal was even executed at 90.0050 after market hours on the trading platform.
Stalled India–US trade talks and heavy FPI outflows are adding further pressure, even as the dollar index struggles to hold above 100. If RBI support eases around the 90 level, analysts warn the pair could test 91 in the current cycle.
The currency move comes just as the MPC meeting begins today, with the interest rate decision due on 5 December, ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy outcome on 10 December. A rate cut by the RBI could trigger additional selling in the rupee. For now, experts advise exporters to keep converting dollars on a spot basis with minimal hedging, while importers are advised to buy the dips.
Amit Pabari of CR Forex Advisors noted that the RBI's shift has been visible. After weeks of defending the 88.80 level, the central bank quietly stepped back on 21 November, allowing the market to break through. “Once 88.80 was allowed to break, it became clear the RBI is no longer blocking every move — instead guiding the rupee through a controlled, gradual depreciation and stepping in only to prevent sharp swings,” he said.
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