Global Trade To Grow 0.9% This Year; High Tariffs To Impact In 2026: WTO Forecast
India's exports remained flat at $35.14 billion in June due to global economic uncertainties, while trade deficit narrowed to a four-month low of $18.78 billion during the month.
(Photo: Freepik)
The global merchandise trade is expected to grow 0.9% this year due to frontloading of imports in the US due to sweeping tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, according to the WTO forecast. It said higher tariffs will weigh on trade and it will bring next year's expected trade volume growth down to 1.8% from 2.5% projected earlier.
"World merchandise trade is now projected to grow 0.9% in 2025, up from the -0.2% contraction forecasted in April but down from the 2.7% estimate pre-dating the tariff increases." it said. The slight increase in the projection augur well for India.
India's exports remained flat at $35.14 billion in June due to global economic uncertainties, while trade deficit narrowed to a four-month low of $18.78 billion during the month.
World Trade Organisation Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said the shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains.
"Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment." she said.
It added that Asian economies are projected to remain the largest positive driver of world merchandise trade volume growth in 2025, although their contribution in 2026 will be smaller than predicted in April.
North America will weigh negatively on global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, it added.
