(Bloomberg) --
Bloomberg Economics sees the danger that China will hit its $200 billion extra purchases commitment in its trade deal with the U.S. by shifting purchases from other countries. In 2017, the baseline year for the deal, the U.S. share of China's imports in the target categories was 9% -- adding the target commitments would take the share to 17%. Angola, the Republic of the Congo and Mongolia face the highest risk, with 57%, 49% and 47% of their total exports in 2017 coming from sales to China in categories covered by the deal, while focusing on major economies exporting agriculture and energy products -- where substitution is easiest -- Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Australia are most exposed.
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