(Bloomberg) -- Gold prices are set to rise more slowly in 2025 after a record-breaking run this year, according to the World Gold Council.
Bullion is up more than 30% so far in 2024, but gains next year will likely be tempered by variables like growth and inflation, the WGC said. Possible trade wars in US President-elect Donald Trump's second term and complicated interest-rate outlooks may spill over into subpar economic growth, hurting demand from investors and consumers, the industry association said in its 2025 outlook report released on Thursday.
“All eyes are on the US. Trump's second term may provide a boost to the local economy but could equally elicit a fair degree of nervousness for investors around the world,” it said.
Bullion's rally in the early part of 2024 was driven by large purchases by central banks, especially the People's Bank of China and others in emerging markets. It got a further boost from the Federal Reserve's recent monetary easing and haven demand during periods of heightened geopolitical tensions including wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, gains have stalled due to a rally in the dollar following Trump's election win.
Some banks are still bullish on the prospects of the precious metal, currently trading near $2,700 an ounce, next year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is forecasting it will get to $3,000 by the end of 2025, while UBS AG sees $2,900.
China's actions in the gold market will be closely watched. So far, investors in the Asian nation have provided price support, while consumers have stayed on the sidelines, but “these dynamics hang on the direct (and indirect) effects of trade, stimulus and perceptions of risk,” the WGC said.
The yellow metal will rise if the world sees “significantly lower interest rates, or a deterioration in geopolitics or financial market conditions,” the council said. Lower rates typically benefit gold as it pays no interest.
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