Budget 2025 Expectations: Tweak Income Tax Exemption Rule, Simplify ESOP Taxes

Ahead of Budget 2025, the government should focus on reduction in tax on gains on bank deposits, adjusting income tax exemption limits and raising fixed deductions to keep in pace with inflation, according to former Central Board of Direct Taxes Chairman JB Mohapatra.

Mohapatra, in a report for Global Trade Research Initiative, gave four key reforms for a more efficient tax structure, including simplifying the TDS system and classifying Futures and Options as speculative activity. Here is a look at the reforms he proposed.

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As India prepares for the upcoming Budget 2025, HSBC forecasts that the government will achieve its fiscal deficit target of 4.8% of GDP in FY25, slightly better than the initial budgeted figure of 4.9%. This positive outcome is mainly attributed to a slowdown in capital expenditure (capex), partly due to delays in project approvals amid the election year. However, looking ahead to FY26, the fiscal consolidation path will be much more difficult, as the government seeks to lower the deficit to below 4.5% of GDP.

The brokerage expects complex financial landscape that the government will navigate in FY26. With a softening economy, slower-than-expected revenue growth, and ongoing challenges in balancing fiscal consolidation with essential public spending, the Feb. 1 budget will be pivotal for setting the course for India’s fiscal health in the coming years.

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The Union Budget 2025 is expected to bring more market volatility than gains, as per Morgan Stanley's latest report. Historical trends indicate the Budget's influence on short-term market performance has been declining, yet pre-Budget expectations remain critical in shaping post-Budget movements.

As per Morgan Stanley analysis, the market falls two out of three times in the 30 days post Budget. The probability of such a fall rises to 75%, if the market has risen in the 30 days preceding the budget.

Only on three occasions in 32 years has the market been up both pre and post the budget, the latest being 2024, the report said.

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Given that startups will soon aid India’s GDP growth, the government must look at simplifying taxation of employee stock ownership plan in the upcoming Budget, Mobikwik’s Chief Financial Officer and Co-Founder, Upasana Taku, said.

An ESOP refers to an employee benefit plan, which offers employees an ownership interest in the entity.

“I believe that there is an opportunity in making ESOP taxation simpler and easier,” Taku told NDTV Profit at the DLAI India Fintech Conclave 2025.

The Halwa Ceremony is a pre-budget tradition in which sweets are prepared in the Finance Ministry’s kitchen. A large batch of halwa is cooked in a kadhai (wok) and served to the ministry staff who have been involved with the preparation of the Budget. The Finance Minister officiates the event by stirring the halwa and serving it to the staff.