(Bloomberg) -- A soft landing is a plausible outcome for the US labor market, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller said.
This is among the conclusions in a paper Waller authored with Andrew Figura, an associate director for research and statistics at the Fed, published on the central bank's website Friday.
Using the Beveridge curve, which plots the job-openings rate against the unemployment rate, they found that a decline in the vacancy rate from 7% to 4.6% would lead to an increase in the unemployment rate of about 1 percentage point or less.
“This increase would put the unemployment rate at a level below 5%, which in historical terms is quite low and, in our view, consistent with a soft landing,” they said.
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