November Auto Sales Preview: CVs To Stun Street; Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors Ride GST High

November was a crucial month to gauge the health of automobile sector, as a dip in sales was expected following the high festive demand seen in the preceding month. However, estimates suggest that the momentum has been sustained in November, likely due to the consumption boost powered by the reduction in goods and services tax.

The commercial vehicles segment is expected post a surprise this month, based on brokerage estimates and channel checks. Some of the key reasons seen behind this is upward momentum post GST cuts, and a pickup in fleet utilisation for operators.

All automobile majors are expected to post strong numbers, with GST momentum to continue for Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors and Eicher Motors.

GST cuts might have started a structural growth story in reviving key segments that had been underperforming for the last few years. It is important to note that two-wheeler industry sales have not crossed the levels seen back in 2019, which signifies the weakness in lower CC models. The tax cut bonanza has revived the bottom-end of the segment, and companies like Hero MotoCorp are a big beneficiary of this trend.

Among other trends are premiumisation and ‘scooterisation’, which are helping TVS and Eicher. Sales have been strong for both brands in the first seven months of FY26. Between April and October this year, TVS sales grew 18% year-over-year and Eicher-owned Royal Enfield grew at 27%.

Not only two-wheelers, but the small car space has also seen a spurt in demand following the GST 2.0 rollout. This space has been largely absent in growth over the last few years due to the increased cost added by moving to BS6, and incomes not growing at a steady pace for consumers. Maruti Suzuki is seen as a big beneficiary of the tax cuts, and growth is expected to be strong at over 16% in November, as per estimates.

This will be the first time in FY26 that all three listed players — Eicher Motors-owned VECV, Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors CV will show a mid to high-teens growth in a particular month. All players are expected to post a growth between 15-22% compared to the same time last year, with VECV likely to log the highest growth.

CV demand has seen a meaningful pickup following the GST cuts, as improved operating economics and stable freight rates continue to support momentum, Nomura said in a note.

The momentum in tractor sales is expected to continue in November and the rest of the fiscal year, with M&M, a leader in this space, raising the FY26 growth guidance for the industry to 10-12% versus 7-9% earlier.

The overall demand sentiment remains strong, supported by improved rural liquidity and healthier cash flows.

Between April and October this year, both M&M and Escorts Kubota have grown well, showing an 18% and 11% growth in sales. For November, both companies are expected to post 8% growth in sales compared to last year.