(Bloomberg) -- The imminent end of China's one-child policy is welcome and long overdue, but in the short-run, the impact on growth would be somewhere between zero and negative, according to Bloomberg Economics. Arguing for zero impact -- the one-child policy is no longer the binding constraint on fertility. That honor now goes to the pressures of modern life: stressful jobs and expensive housing aren't going away. Arguing for negative impact -- if families do choose to have more children, that will take more workers out of the labor market as young parents exit to focus on childcare.
To contact the reporters on this story: Tom Orlik (Economist) in Beijing at torlik4@bloomberg.net;Qian Wan (Economist) in Beijing at qwan18@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Sheldon Reback at sreback@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss
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