House Democrats are kicking off 2026 with the political winds blowing in their favor: advantageous polling, voters underwhelmed with President Donald Trump's second term and a history of opposition gains in midterm elections.
The challenge is sustaining that momentum for the next 10 months in the hopes that it bubbles into a tide — or wave — that ushers them into power in at least one chamber of Congress.
The stakes for the White House are huge. A Democratic-led House would dilute Trump's power, forcing him to try to rely even more on executive orders. The House would also amp up investigations into his administration and perhaps spur a third impeachment — a possibility Trump warned his GOP colleagues recently, though there's little chance the Senate would vote to remove him from office.
“It's pretty clear that the headwinds for Republicans are strong, if you put together Trump's approval rating, voters' continuing frustration with the state of the economy and the president's handling of that, on top of what look to be significant enthusiasm advantages for Democratic candidates,” said Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Representative Suzan DelBene, a Democrat from Washington, during a rally for healthcare funding outside the US Capitol on Sept. 30.
Photo Credit: Bloomberg
Walter's publication recently shifted 18 House races toward Democrats, bringing the number of seats considered solidly blue to 189, compared to 186 for Republicans. A party needs 218 seats to win the majority.
On top of that, a poll from the New York Times and Siena University this week showed that a majority of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of key issues, with less than a third saying the country is better off than it was when he took office a year ago. That prompted outrage from the president, who said on social media that “Fake and Fraudulent Polling should be, virtually, a criminal offense.”
Democrats are betting they can sustain their advantage with a sharpening focus on affordability after some bigger-than-expected election victories in November. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries exuded confidence about that approach at a recent news conference, saying “Trump's administration has been a complete and total disaster on the economy, and the American people know it.”
A core element of the Democratic strategy will be highlighting Republican opposition to extending expired Obamacare health-care subsides, which are sending out-of-pocket premiums soaring for more than 20 million people, and Medicaid cuts that are set to take effect after the election. Democrats are also targeting Trump's tariff regime, telling consumers they're the ones paying for the higher duties, a claim backed by a recent study.
“Trump said, ‘I'm going to lower costs on day one.' It's been broken promise after broken promise after broken promise,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Suzan DelBene said in an interview. “We're in a strong position to take back the majority, and we will take back the majority in 2027.”
President Donald Trump, center, and House Speaker Mike Johnson, center left, shake hands after signing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on July 4.
Photo Credit: Bloomberg
Trump isn't standing by. He's also pitching an affordability agenda after spending the final months of 2025 arguing that the issue was a Democratic “hoax.” He's proposed a slew of policies ranging from bans on institutional investors from buying rental homes to a cap on credit card interest rates, though details on his initiatives and how they would be implemented remain scarce.
In addition, Republicans argue they'll get a boost this tax season as many Americans receive larger refunds from Trump's tax-and-spending bill enacted last year.
Seniors and workers who collect tips or overtime will benefit from new or higher tax deductions. In vulnerable northeast swing districts like those of New York's Mike Lawler and Nick LaLota, the expansion of the state and local tax deduction could boost refunds, particularly among wealthy homeowners, by thousands of dollars.
“We have a great record to run on, and as the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill' gets implemented in the first quarter, people are going to feel that,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said in an interview. “Republican policies are working for the people, and I think they reward that at the ballot box.”
Others have doubts about whether tax season will turn things around for Republicans. More than half of taxpayers won't see a remarkable difference in their annual tax filings, according to Adam Michel, director of tax policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute.
Still, a lot could go wrong for Democrats.
Data on Friday showed that US consumer sentiment increased to a five-month high in January as Americans grew more optimistic about the economy and their finances. The monthly advance in sentiment was the biggest since June and reflected gains across income, age, education and political affiliation. And although sentiment remains historically subdued, continued improvement could upend the Democratic playbook.
Another bright spot for the president is that the GOP looks likely to retain control of the Senate due to a favorable map with few vulnerable Republicans up for reelection.
Then there's the hefty Republican war chest, aided by Trump's MAGA Inc.
The super PAC has amassed some $294 million, its most recent filing with the Federal Election Commission shows, and the president has signaled he's willing to use that money to shore up the narrow majority Republicans enjoy in the House. His PAC can augment spending by the Republican National Committee and its arms that focus on House and Senate campaigns, which have outraised their Democratic counterparts by some $30 million so far.
It's unclear, however, whether that cash advantage will translate into GOP victories in swing districts.
MAGA Inc. spent $1.7 million backing Republican Matt Van Epps in a December special election to fill a solidly Republican Tennessee House seat after Democrats made a concerted push for an upset.
Democrats didn't succeed but Van Epps defeated his Democratic opponent by only 9 percentage points — a margin significantly narrower than the 21.5-point cushion his predecessor, former Representative Mark Green, enjoyed in 2024.
Inflation Pressures
On the economy, Trump and his fellow Republicans repeatedly point out that inflation is far below its 2022 peak, often flagging the price of specific goods such as eggs and gasoline. At the same time, rising costs are taking a toll. In December, prices rose by 2.7% compared to the year prior. Groceries climbed 0.7% over the span of one month, making it the biggest jump since 2022. And insurance for homeowners and renters has surged by a record 8.2% over the last 12 months.
The job market, meanwhile, has cooled. While layoffs remain limited, hiring has slowed and largely been concentrated in just a few sectors. Wages are rising, but not as fast as they were a few years ago.
The question is whether some of that pain will ease, and if does, whether that helps Republicans. The economy is set to grow above 2% by the end of 2026, according to Bloomberg Economics, so long as trade policy uncertainty fades and AI investment accelerates. And mortgage rates, while still elevated, have been slowly coming down.
Economic Perceptions
Still, voters are pessimistic about the economy. Polls show Trump's disapproval is related both to the cost of everyday items and his previous rhetoric that affordability is a “hoax” not worthy of his full attention, Walter said.
Perceptions of the economy matter more than the actual economic data at this point, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan publication produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
Kondik said the 2018 midterm elections during Trump's first term were tough for House Republicans and perceptions of the economy were better then than they are now. With voters' views hardening, improvement in the macroeconomic environment between now and November would “probably only be helpful to a degree” for Republicans, while Democratic enthusiasm to restrain Trump are high, he added.
“All that combines together for at this point looks like should be a pretty good Democratic political environment,” he said.
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