India Records 7% Deficit Rainfall Till September, Monsoon Withdrawal Will Be Delayed Says IMD
According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon is also likely to extend its stay in India by a few more days.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday released its extended weather forecast for the week ending on September 28 sharing the status on the past & current weather forecast which was as per predicted by the weather bureau. IMD also shared the overall monsoon scenario in the country depicting the % departure from its LPA till week ending on September 20.
The weather department had predicted active monsoon conditions in the second week of September over Central India, Northwest India and Gujarat State. IMD stated that this was mainly due to the west-northwestward movement of two consecutive low-pressure systems and their associated cyclonic circulations along the monsoon trough from the Northwest Bay of Bengal towards central and western parts of India.
The southwest monsoon is also likely to extend its stay in India by a few more days. In an interview with Reuters, the director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had hinted at a possible delay in monsoon withdrawal this year. He said, “We can see new circulations and low-pressure areas over many parts of the country, so there are no symptoms of monsoon withdrawal at this stage. It's going to be delayed.”
Typically, the southwest monsoon begins in India at the onset of June, and covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains gradually start receding from the northern regions of India by September third week. However, the weather forecast for the present week and the following weeks shows rainfall activity to pick up across the country in the final days of the month. India will witness persistent heavy rainfall activity as monsoon draws closer. Mohapatra had mentioned the monsoon will be normal or above normal in September.
Heavy rainfall was recorded over Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Gujarat regions during this time.
El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region and are expected to intensify and continue until early next year, as indicated by MMCFS and other global model forecasts, according to press release.
Overall Monsoon Rainfall in India
The press release also provided the analysis of the overall rainfall distribution during the week ending on September 20 and the monsoon season’s rainfall scenario starting from June 1 to September 20. The data shows that for India as a whole, the weekly cumulative All India Rainfall in % departure from its long period average (LPA) till week ending on September 20 was +44%, over the south Peninsula it was -21%, over central India it was +139% while over northwest India it was +86% and over east & northeast India it was -52%.
All India Seasonal cumulative rainfall % departure during this year’s monsoon season’s rainfall from June 1 to September 20 was -7% and over northwest India it was +2%.
Weather Forecast from September 22 to 27
East India: Light/moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm & lightning with isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim from 22 to 24 September, over Bihar on 22 & 23 September, over Odisha, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal on 22 September and 26 & 27 September and over Andaman & Nicobar Islands from 23 to 27 September.
Isolated very heavy rainfall is very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on 22 & 23 September, over Bihar on 22 September.
Northeast India: Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/thunderstorm with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall activity is very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland & Manipur from 22 to 24 September.
Central India: Light/moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm & lightning with isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh on 22 & 23 September, over West Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha on 22 September.
South India: Light/moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over Kerala, Tamil Nadu on 22 September, over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on 26 and 27 September.
Northwest India: Light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/thunderstorm with isolated heavy falls is very likely over East Uttar Pradesh on 22 September.
West India: Light/moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm & lightning with isolated heavy rainfall is very likely over north Konkan from 24 to 27 September, over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada on 22 September, and over Gujarat from 26 to 27 September.
Isolated to scattered light/moderate rainfall is likely over the rest of the parts of the country during next 7 days.
Weather Forecast from September 28 to October 4
Light to moderate rainfall likely at a few places over the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains during 1st half of the week of October.
Light to moderate fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are likely over most parts of central, east & northeast India during the week.
Rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over central India and adjoining northwest and northern parts of Peninsular India, South Gujarat and Maharashtra and along west coast of India and normal over rest parts of India outside northeast India where it is likely to be below normal to normal rainfall during the week.
Overall, above normal rainfall activity is likely over country as a whole during this range.
