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ICRA Research Report
With the unfavourable base manifesting itself, the consumer price index inflation surged to a six-month high 5.6% in December 2021 from 4.9% in November 2021, despite the 0.4% fall in the index in month-on-month terms in December 2021.
The increase in the YoY CPI inflation in December 2021 relative to the previous month was primarily led by food and beverages, and clothing and footwear, with a welcome moderation in the prints for fuel and light, and pan, tobacco etc. amid a mild dip in miscellaneous items and housing.
The core CPI inflation was stable at 5.85% in December 2021, in spite of the price hikes being undertaken across various sectors including the increase in telecom charges.
We expect the headline CPI inflation to range between an uncomfortable 5.7-6.0% in Q4 FY22, as compared to the Monetary Policy Committee's forecast of 5.7%.
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