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ICICI Securities Report
Natco Pharma Ltd.'s Q4 FY23 revenue growth of 50% and margins were driven by higher sales in the export market.
Natco Pharma is confident of gaining further traction in the export business in the next couple of quarters. It is on track to:
deploy windfall from gRevlimid towards strengthening its first-to-file pipeline for U.S. generics (investing 8-10% of revenue on research and development),
foray into crop protection (FY24E revenue: Rs 1.5 billion-2 billion), and
reward shareholders with timely buyback.
Near-term pipeline includes limited-competition products like gImbruvica, gAubagio, gKyprolis and gPomalyst. Though the pipeline is healthy, we believe it may not be able to compensate for decline in earnings of gRevlimid.
We remain cautious owing to competition in gRevlimid and limited earnings visibility beyond FY26E.
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