Mahanagar Gas’ adjusted Ebitda/PAT missed our estimates after adjusting the reversal of provision of Rs 633 million during Q4 FY25. (Source: Company website)
Since Systematix' last upgrade, Mahanagar Gas' stock has jumped 11% due to upward revision in APM allocation, price hikes and lower spot LNG price. We forecast volume /Ebitda/PAT CAGR growth of 6.8%/9.7%/7.5% during FY25-FY27E. The stock is trading at a very attractive valution of 11.5x on FY27E vs long-term average multiple of 14x.