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ICRA Research Report
The Index of Industrial Production recorded a stable yet tepid growth of 3.2% in October 2021 (our expectation: up 2.9%; September 2021: up 3.3%) with the festive season boost being negated by the supply side issues afflicting the auto sector, as well as a higher base (up 4.5% in Oct-2020; up 1.0% in Sept-2020).
The disaggregated data does not provide convincing signals of the recovery becoming durable and broad-basing further, with capital goods (down 1.1%) and consumer durables (down 6.1%) reporting a YoY contraction in October 2021.
Moreover, consumer non-durables displayed a sub-1% rise for the second consecutive month in October 2021, adding heft to the view that the demand recovery is as yet tentative.
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