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ICRA Research Report
The pace of YoY growth of the Index of Industrial Production improved, albeit to a lower-than-expected 1.9% in March 2022 (our expectation: up 3.25%) from 1.5% in February 2022.
While the pace of YoY growth of manufacturing and electricity improved in March 2022 relative to the previous month, mining growth eased to 4.0%.
Notwithstanding some improvement relative to the previous month, consumer durables and non-durables continued to report an unnerving YoY contraction in March 2022, underscoring the fragile nature of consumption demand amid the commodity price-inflicted price increases being undertaken by producers.
Moreover, the growth in capital goods output remained subdued, raising doubts about the pick-up in investment activity in Q4 FY22.
With a high YoY expansion in coal, electricity, coal and non-oil exports on the back of a low base related to the second wave of Covid-19 in India, we expect the IIP to report a double-digit expansion in April 2022.
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