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ICICI Securities Report
The generic pharma business model in the U.S. is undergoing a gradual shift and companies with specialised research and development skillsets will likely be able to tide over the transformation better.
Windfall from gRevlimid and slowdown in intensity of pricing pressures have helped U.S. sales of India companies to grow 6% in nine months-FY23, while rationalisation of R&D spend (savings of 100 basis points in past three years) has aided margins.
gRevlimid and exit of competition from a few products could potentially boost the sales run-rate in FY24. We are cautious about U.S. prospects beyond FY24 owing to limited FTF opportunities.
Hence, we prefer companies that are diversifying their offerings in the U.S. and have pipeline visibility. We expect the overall U.S. generics business to post a modest 7% revenue compound annual growth rate over FY23- FY25E.
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