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ICICI Securities Report
As per Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) data for August 2020,
1. petroleum product consumption was down 16% YoY in August 2020 (21% in FY21-to-date) and auto fuel consumption was down 8-21% YoY in August 2020 (25-28% in FY21-to-date);
2. India's refinery utilisation was lowest since April 2020 at 78% in August 2020 (79% in FY21-to-date);
3. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd.'s refinery utilisation was 99% (64-111% for peers) and its throughput down 16% YoY (14-37% YoY for peers) in August 2020 and 101% in FY21-to-date;
4) product net exports are down 36% YoY in August 2020 at 1.34 million metric tonne (6.9 million metric tonne in FY21-to-date) but diesel net exports are up 20% YoY and 45% month on month in August 2020.
Petrol demand was up 2% YoY and diesel down just 5.5% YoY in September 01-15. Auto fuel net marketing margins seem on track to be over Rs 3/litre in FY21E.
Weak GRM and diesel cracks remain a concern but petrol cracks have shown marked improvement.
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