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ICICI Securities Report
Our cement's channel checks suggest industry volumes likely declined in mid-single digit YoY during October-November 2021 due to extended monsoon in many parts of the country and sharp decline in East volumes (on an elevated base and sand mining issues).
Average pan-India prices, which rose by Rs 20/bag in October 2021, remained broadly flat month-on-month and are likely up 8% YoY in Nov-21.
Average Ebitda/tonne during Q3 FY22 is still likely to remain broadly flat both QoQ and YoY as the impact of lower volumes and higher costs is likely to get offset by higher prices (~3% QoQ).
Given receding cost pressures, potential demand recovery remains a key trigger for the sector / stocks, in our view.
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