(Bloomberg) -- What happens to global growth if there's a trade war? Based on Bloomberg Economics' estimates, if the U.S. raises import costs by 10 percent and the rest of the world retaliates, raising tariffs on U.S. exports, the cost by 2020 would be 0.5 percent of global GDP. To put that into perspective, that's about $470 billion -- roughly the size of Thailand's output.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jamie Murray (Economist) in London at jmurray126@bloomberg.net, Tom Orlik (Economist) in Beijing at torlik4@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Sheldon Reback at sreback@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss
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