India Has No North-South Divide In Fertility | The Reason Why

In 2023, hospitals in Chennai delivered fewer babies per woman than the entire US. This must have triggered MK Stalin, who openly encouraged families to have more children.

Leaders in the South Indian states are concerned about the trajectory of declining birth rates in these states and fear they may end up like Japan and South Korea – with an ageing population and stagnant growth.

Although we are all proud of being the youngest economy in the world, the truth is not as simple. From Hum Do, Hamare Do to the preference of a single child and now the rise of SINKs (Single Income No Kids) and DINKs (Double Income No Kids), India has travelled a long demographic journey. And no, this isn’t only a story about the South anymore.

The truth is, barring the Hindi heartland — Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar — all other major states now have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. That’s the number needed to maintain a stable population. Anything below that, and population growth slows and eventually shrinks.

Kerala dipped below 2.1 even before 2000. By the early 2000s, Tamil Nadu and Delhi had joined that league. West Bengal, Maharashtra, Punjab, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh soon followed.

Today, nearly all these states have fertility rates lower than many developed countries. Similar patterns are visible in smaller states of Goa, Sikkim, and much of the North-East. Therefore, India’s low-fertility arc is not just southern; it's southern, western, eastern, north-eastern and even some northern.

The common belief that the northern states are lagging is misleading. The data shows that these states have one of the highest declines in fertility rates in India in the last two decades. Fertility rates in Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan fell by around 45% between 2000 and 2023 — a sharper drop than India’s overall 41%.

Jharkhand, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh saw declines of around 40%, higher than the Southern states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. The divergence is about the levels and not the rate of fall. The northern states will drive India’s population growth over the next two decades. But their trajectory will converge faster than most people realise.

As fertility falls and people live longer, the population ages. With ageing, the economy transforms the way it works, spends and grows. Older people need more healthcare support, medicines, diagnostics, insurance claims, and assisted living. But they need fewer baby products and schools. Families with fewer children have different time budgets, spending patterns and needs.

Time-use data show that women in low-fertility states (South, Maharashtra and Delhi) spend more time on employment and learning, and less on household production activities like cooking. That limited time at home increases demand for labour-saving appliances such as robot mops and dishwashers.

As a self-exercise, I would suggest you check out the distribution network of all robot mops and dishwasher service centres across India. You may also check the product reviews and ‘How To Use’ videos.

You can see a higher density of service centres in the South and a larger number of videos in Southern languages than, say, Hindi. This is why consumer durables are a bigger chunk in the family budget for Southern states than for others. Yes, higher income and remittances are major factors. But the demography aids too.

As the working-age population shrinks in low-fertility states, they pull in migrants from other parts of India. This reallocation of labour is already reshaping Kerala, Tamil Nadu and parts of Maharashtra.

But this is where politics can clash with economic reality. Over the past decade, we’ve seen episodes of anti-migrant rhetoric from some Southern political actors. Such posturing may win a few votes, but it works against the state’s own interests. A low-fertility, ageing economy needs migrant labour.

If these states restrict or discourage internal movement, they will impact the industries that made them prosperous in the first place. Furthermore, it also dismantles social order and peace. Therefore, that’s a dangerous turn, which should be avoided at all costs.

Labour shortages will push the South toward automation, AI-driven services, higher female labour participation and dependence on northern migrants. Meanwhile, northern states must quickly convert their demographic dividend into economic growth before their window closes.

We don’t have to panic. But we cannot be careless and indifferent too. India’s demographic transformation is unfolding at different speeds across its regions. Businesses and policymakers need to prepare for this unevenness.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of NDTV Profit or its affiliates. Readers are advised to conduct their own research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment or business decisions. NDTV Profit does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented in this article.