(Bloomberg) --
Bloomberg Economics' gauge of economic uncertainty in the euro area remained elevated in September, with the recent spike mostly caused by unpredictable trade policy, which is holding back business investment across the globe. BE estimates that the impact of uncertainty on global growth has actually been greater than the direct effect of trade tariffs between U.S. and China. The goods news is that, as U.S. growth has slowed, the costs of the trade war have become more obvious. That makes the White House less likely to open another front in the conflict and Europe may avoid big protectionist measures. BE expects lower uncertainty to provide some support to growth in early 2020, but it comes too late to save the fourth quarter.
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