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Biden’s Chances of Winning Drop to 89.2%: FiveThirtyEight
Biden’s Chances of Winning Drop to 89.2%: FiveThirtyEight
03 Nov 2020, 10:24 PM IST 
(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden’s chances of winning the Electoral College fell to 89.2%, according to the latest run of poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model, from 90% on Nov. 2. He is predicted to win 350 of 538 electoral votes.
- The model estimated Donald Trump’s chances at 10.4%, up from 9.6% on Nov. 2
- According to the Nov. 3 run of the model, Trump had a 2.6% chance of carrying the popular vote, compared with Biden’s 97.4%
- The national polling average for Trump reached 43.4% on Nov. 3, unchanged from Nov. 2
- Biden’s national polling average reached 51.8% on Nov. 3, the same as on Nov. 2
- These were the FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts and polling averages by state on Nov. 3:
| State | Electoral Votes | 2016 Winner | Trump Poll Avg | Biden Poll Avg | Trump Win Chance | Biden Win Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 9 | Trump | 57.4% | 37.8% | 98.4% | 1.6% |
| Alaska | 3 | Trump | 51.0% | 43.5% | 85.0% | 14.9% |
| Arizona | 11 | Trump | 46.1% | 48.7% | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| Arkansas | 6 | Trump | 58.4% | 36.2% | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| California | 55 | Clinton | 32.3% | 61.6% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| Colorado | 9 | Clinton | 41.0% | 53.6% | 3.2% | 96.8% |
| Connecticut | 7 | Clinton | 32.0% | 58.4% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| Delaware | 3 | Clinton | 34.1% | 58.7% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| District of Columbia | 3 | Clinton | 5.6% | 90.7% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Florida | 29 | Trump | 46.7% | 49.1% | 30.9% | 69.1% |
| Georgia | 16 | Trump | 47.3% | 48.6% | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| Hawaii | 4 | Clinton | 29.2% | 64.3% | 0.6% | 99.4% |
| Idaho | 4 | Trump | 56.2% | 38.3% | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Illinois | 20 | Clinton | 39.0% | 55.0% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| Indiana | 11 | Trump | 52.8% | 42.0% | 96.4% | 3.6% |
| Iowa | 6 | Trump | 47.6% | 46.3% | 60.1% | 39.9% |
| Kansas | 6 | Trump | 53.8% | 40.9% | 98.6% | 1.4% |
| Kentucky | 8 | Trump | 55.5% | 39.7% | 98.6% | 1.4% |
| Louisiana | 8 | Trump | 57.5% | 37.0% | 97.1% | 2.9% |
| Maine | 4 | Clinton | 40.3% | 53.3% | 9.9% | 90.1% |
| Maryland | 10 | Clinton | 31.6% | 63.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Clinton | 28.6% | 64.4% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| Michigan | 16 | Trump | 43.2% | 51.2% | 5.3% | 94.7% |
| Minnesota | 10 | Clinton | 42.6% | 51.9% | 4.2% | 95.8% |
| Mississippi | 6 | Trump | 55.4% | 39.5% | 91.5% | 8.5% |
| Missouri | 10 | Trump | 51.5% | 43.6% | 93.6% | 6.4% |
| Montana | 3 | Trump | 49.7% | 45.3% | 82.0% | 18.0% |
| Nebraska | 5 | Trump | 51.7% | 42.4% | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Nevada | 6 | Clinton | 44.3% | 49.6% | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Clinton | 42.8% | 53.9% | 10.9% | 89.1% |
| New Jersey | 14 | Clinton | 37.9% | 58.4% | 0.8% | 99.2% |
| New Mexico | 5 | Clinton | 41.8% | 53.8% | 2.2% | 97.8% |
| New York | 29 | Clinton | 32.8% | 62.2% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| North Carolina | 15 | Trump | 47.1% | 48.9% | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| North Dakota | 3 | Trump | 55.6% | 38.6% | 97.6% | 2.4% |
| Ohio | 18 | Trump | 47.5% | 46.8% | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Trump | 58.8% | 36.1% | 99.4% | 0.6% |
| Oregon | 7 | Clinton | 37.0% | 58.6% | 1.8% | 98.2% |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | Trump | 45.6% | 50.2% | 15.7% | 84.3% |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Clinton | 31.8% | 62.9% | 0.1% | 99.9% |
| South Carolina | 9 | Trump | 51.6% | 44.5% | 90.0% | 10.0% |
| South Dakota | 3 | Trump | 54.2% | 39.0% | 94.8% | 5.2% |
| Tennessee | 11 | Trump | 54.9% | 41.0% | 96.8% | 3.2% |
| Texas | 38 | Trump | 48.6% | 47.5% | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| Utah | 6 | Trump | 51.6% | 42.1% | 95.4% | 4.6% |
| Vermont | 3 | Clinton | 27.3% | 66.4% | 0.4% | 99.6% |
| Virginia | 13 | Clinton | 41.8% | 53.7% | 1.0% | 99.0% |
| Washington | 12 | Clinton | 36.3% | 59.3% | 0.8% | 99.2% |
| West Virginia | 5 | Trump | 61.9% | 33.5% | 99.3% | 0.7% |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Trump | 43.7% | 52.1% | 5.6% | 94.4% |
| Wyoming | 3 | Trump | 62.0% | 30.8% | 99.8% | 0.2% |
- Major polls added to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database in the last 24 hours:
| Pollster | Sponsors | State or Federal | Start Date | End Date | Population | Sample Size | Trump % | Biden % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | NA | Florida | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 1,202 | 48.0 | 51.0 |
| Data for Progress | NA | Georgia | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 1,036 | 48.0 | 50.0 |
| Data for Progress | NA | Iowa | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 951 | 49.0 | 47.0 |
| Data for Progress | NA | Kansas | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 1,121 | 55.0 | 41.0 |
| Data for Progress | NA | Minnesota | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 1,259 | 43.0 | 51.0 |
| Data for Progress | NA | Mississippi | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 562 | 55.0 | 41.0 |
| Data for Progress | NA | Nevada | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 1,442 | 44.0 | 51.0 |
| Data for Progress | NA | Pennsylvania | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 1,417 | 45.0 | 52.0 |
| Data for Progress | NA | South Carolina | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 880 | 53.0 | 44.0 |
| Ipsos | Reuters | Federal | 10/31/20 | 11/2/20 | 1,333 | 46.0 | 51.0 | |
| Ipsos | Reuters | Federal | 10/31/20 | 11/2/20 | Likely voters | 914 | 45.0 | 52.0 |
| Ipsos | Reuters | Federal | 10/31/20 | 11/2/20 | Registered voters | 1,146 | 45.0 | 52.0 |
| Ipsos | Reuters | Florida | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 670 | 46.0 | 50.0 |
| Ipsos | Reuters | North Carolina | 10/27/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 707 | 48.0 | 49.0 |
| Landmark Communications | WSB-TV | Georgia | 11/1/20 | 11/1/20 | Likely voters | 500 | 50.1 | 46.0 |
| Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage | FOX35 Orlando | Florida | 11/1/20 | 11/2/20 | Likely voters | 400 | 48.2 | 47.0 |
| YouGov | Economist | Federal | 10/31/20 | 11/2/20 | Likely voters | 1,363 | 43.0 | 53.0 |
| YouGov | Economist | Federal | 10/31/20 | 11/2/20 | Registered voters | 1,500 | 40.0 | 49.0 |
NOTE: FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to their historical accuracy. For the purposes of this story, the lowest possible rating for a major poll is B-. In 2016, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but missed with its Electoral College forecast.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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