IMD Weather Forecast For September 2023: Monsoon Expected To Revive In The Coming Month
IMD shared a forecast for the month of September amid the ongoing El Nino condition which affected the August rainfall activity.
India Meteorological Department on Thursday released the 'Forecast Outlook for the Monthly Rainfall and Temperature for September 2023'.
The IMD in its press conference also stated that August 2023 was one of the driest August in India since 1901, with a rain deficit of over 33%. This has raised concerns about the possibility of a significant shortfall in the monsoon season as well.
As of today, the total rainfall for August across India is 160.3 mm, which is 33% below the average of 241 mm. This is in contrast to the earlier predictions made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), which had expected slightly below-average monsoon rainfall for August, with a deficiency of 6% to 10%.
IMD September Weather Forecast
Below is the forecast for rainfall and temperature in September 2023.
The expected rainfall across the country in September 2023 is predicted to be within the normal range of 91-109% of the long-term average (LPA). The LPA of rainfall in September, based on data from 1971-2020, is approximately 167.9 mm.
According to the forecast, there is a higher chance of above-normal rainfall in certain regions of northeast India, east India, the foothills of the Himalayas, and some parts of east-central and south peninsular India. However, most areas of the rest of the country are likely going receive normal or below normal rainfall. The white-shaded areas on the map represent the climatological probabilities.
During the month of September, it is expected that maximum temperatures will be above normal in most parts of the country, with the exception of some areas in south peninsular India and certain pockets of west-central India, where temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal.
Additionally, it is expected that minimum temperatures will be above normal in most parts of the country, except for some areas in extreme north India, where temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal.
El Nino Affect In Weather Condition
El Niño conditions are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region and are expected to intensify and persist until early next year, according to the latest forecast of MMCFS and other global model forecasts.
Along with ENSO conditions in the Pacific, Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also influence the Indian monsoon. Currently, positive IOD conditions are present in the Indian Ocean, and forecasts from the latest MMCFS and other global models suggest that these positive IOD conditions are expected to intensify in the coming months.
You can check the detailed forecast outlook by vieiwing the press release provided below by IMD
The IMD had released the first stage forecast for the 2023 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country on April 11, 2023, and provided an update for the forecast on May 26, 2023.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released the monthly outlook for rainfall and temperatures in July 2023 on June 30th.
They also provided the Southwest monsoon rainfall forecast for the second half of the season and for August 2023 on July 31st.
