'Worst Is Over': Why Helios Capital’s Dinshaw Irani Is Bullish On Indian Markets For 2026
A key potential catalyst, according to Irani, is the long-pending tariff deal with the US.
Dinshaw Irani, chief executive officer of Helios Capital (India), believes Indian markets have moved past the worst phase and are now setting up for a far more constructive 2026, driven by an earnings recovery, easing macro pressures and improving global cues.
According to Irani, 2025 marked the toughest period in terms of news flow, even though market performance itself was relatively resilient. He noted that a flat market this year was arguably the best outcome investors could have hoped for, given the fiscal and monetary tightening that took place in 2024 and weighed on growth entering 2025. However, by 2025, both the Reserve Bank of India and the government had shifted towards fiscal and monetary loosening, which has started to reflect in earnings recovery.
Irani, while talking to NDTV Profit, emphasised that markets ultimately follow earnings. He pointed out that growth began returning in the September quarter and expects the December quarter to be another strong period for corporate earnings.
With two more quarters ahead, that have a low base from the previous year, year-on-year growth is likely to look even better going forward, setting up a fairly decent 2026 for equities.
A key potential catalyst, according to Irani, is the long-pending tariff deal with the US. He believes markets are currently factoring in the removal of an implied additional 25% penal duty on India. Any further reduction from the originally announced 25% tariffs would be taken very positively.
Irani expects tariffs to eventually settle in the 10–15% range, citing India’s efforts to comply with global expectations, including curbing supplies from Russia and entering free trade agreements with other countries. Such an outcome, he said, could provide a significant boost to market sentiment.
On market segments, Irani is particularly optimistic about mid- and small-cap stocks. He noted that their underperformance relative to large caps is at a five-year historic low.
Historically, he added, mid and small caps tend to outperform during recovery phases, and he believes this cycle will be no different.
Irani also addressed foreign investor behaviour. He noted that the roughly $25 billion of foreign selling has largely been in the secondary market, while foreign investors have still invested over $10 billion in primary markets. This suggests that global investors are waiting for the right opportunities.
The earlier exit, he said, was driven by low growth and high valuations, both of which are now reversing. India’s valuation premium over other emerging markets has narrowed sharply, making it more attractive. Since October, India has also begun outperforming the broader emerging market universe, a trend foreign investors closely track.
