Indian equity markets head into the week of June 22 carrying a mixed signal. The Nifty 50 closed Friday at 24,013, having snapped a five-session winning streak on a double dose of bad news — Accenture's guidance cut rattled IT stocks, and a diplomatic delay in the US-Iran peace process revived geopolitical nerves.
Despite Friday's fall of 154.90 points, the index still ended the week up 1.65%, suggesting the underlying structure remains intact even as sentiment turns cautious.
Markets Recap
Benchmark indices ended last week on a split note. The Nifty 50 rose 390.20 points or 1.65% on a weekly basis, closing at 24,013.10 on Friday despite a 154.90-point fall on the last session as IT stocks bore the brunt of selling. The Sensex closed at 76,802.90, down 607.08 points or 0.78% on Friday, dragged lower by HDFC Bank, Infosys, Reliance Industries, TCS and Mahindra & Mahindra. Gains were limited to Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, Larsen & Toubro and ITC.
FIIs remained net sellers through June, offloading shares worth Rs 47,903 crore on a month-to-date basis. Domestic institutions provided support, absorbing the outflows with net buying of Rs 66,215 crore over the same period. On June 18, FIIs sold a net Rs 1,025 crore in the cash segment while DIIs bought Rs 3,516 crore, a pattern that has largely defined market direction through the month.
Crude Oil Action
For Indian markets this week, the most consequential variable is the US-Iran ceasefire and what it means for crude oil prices. Brent crude settled at $79.85 per barrel on Thursday after comments from US Vice President JD Vance raised fresh concerns about the stability of the ceasefire framework. WTI crude fell below $80 per barrel on Friday, heading for a weekly loss of about 8% after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a separate ceasefire.
Brent had surged past $120 per barrel earlier this year when Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, before pulling back sharply as ceasefire talks progressed. Several key issues remain unresolved, including Iran's nuclear programme, and Tehran has said vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz will require mandatory insurance.
For India, which imports the bulk of its crude from the Gulf, any renewed disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows would feed directly into inflation, the current account deficit, and the rupee. Every dollar move in Brent has a direct read-through to D-Street sentiment, and markets will watch geopolitical developments closely through the week.
FII Activity In Focus
Foreign institutional investor flows will remain closely tracked. FIIs have been persistent net sellers in June even on days when they bought in the cash segment — their futures and options positioning tells a more cautious story, with index call shorting and put buying suggesting protective hedging layered onto whatever cash buying is happening. Until that positioning shifts meaningfully, any sustained rally above 24,200 on the Nifty will remain contested.
The Fed Rate Hike Overhang
Global rate expectations shifted materially last week after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a hawkish surprise. While rates were held steady at 3.50–3.75% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, nine of 18 officials projected at least one rate hike by end of 2026. The dot plot had previously called for rate cuts.
The rates market is now pricing in a full 25 basis point hike by October 2026. Higher US rates strengthen the dollar, pressure the rupee, and make emerging market assets relatively less attractive to foreign investors — adding another layer of complexity to an already cautious FII stance on India.
IPOs To Watch
The primary market stays active through the week. Waterways Leisure Tourism — the parent company of Cordelia Cruises, which holds approximately 79% of India's cruise market by value — opens its Rs 585 crore IPO on June 23, with the price band set at Rs 769 to Rs 808 per share and the issue closing June 25.
CSM Technologies, a mid-sized IT services company, opens its Rs 145.78 crore mainboard IPO on June 24 with a price band of Rs 107 to Rs 113, closing June 29.
Turtlemint Fintech Solutions, the insurtech platform that connects over 6.3 lakh certified insurance advisors with customers across 19,000 pin codes, closes its Rs 882.67 crore IPO on June 23. Allotment is expected on June 24, with a tentative listing date of June 29 on the BSE and NSE. The grey market premium heading into the close has been modest at around Rs 2 per share over the upper price band of Rs 152, reflecting cautious rather than exuberant demand.
One Global Number To Watch
The final estimate of US Q1 2026 GDP is due Thursday, June 25. The second estimate had revised growth down to 1.6% annualised from an initial 2.0%, reflecting weaker investment and consumer spending. A material revision in either direction could move global sentiment and feed into how markets read the Fed's rate hike trajectory going into the second half of the year.
Essential Business Intelligence, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice, Daily Fuel, Gold and Silver Prices and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.
