Split Wide Open: Q3 Earnings See Five Accelerators But Laggards Fall For Fourth Quarter Running

India Inc's earnings cycle has cracked into two clear halves, with a widening split between companies accelerating sharply and those slipping deeper into a profit slowdown. The December quarter marked the fourth consecutive period where this divergence became more pronounced—domestic-focused names powering ahead even as export-linked and rate-sensitive businesses continued to struggle.

On one side of the divide stand five companies that have delivered a clean, consistent rise in year‑on‑year PAT growth over the last four quarters. These “accelerators” include Jubilant Foodworks, Polycab India, Persistent Systems, Max Healthcare Institute and Home First Finance. Each has benefitted from distinct growth drivers tied to India's domestic demand cycle, capacity expansions, or technology-led shifts.
 

Jubilant Foodworks saw profit momentum revive as Domino's expanded its India footprint and store economics improved. Polycab rode a combination of strong Wires & Cables demand, GST cuts and government capex, keeping its earnings engine firing. Persistent Systems remained one of the standout performers, buoyed by strong traction in AI-led platforms and transformation deals. Max Healthcare delivered steady profit gains driven by existing-unit strength and brownfield ramp-ups, while Home First Finance sustained robust disbursement growth alongside steady expansion and rising ticket sizes.

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But on the other side, the “laggards” tell a very different story. Container Corp, Concord Biotech, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals and Axis Bank all reported four straight quarters of declining YoY PAT growth—pulled down by demand pressures, cost spikes, or structural margin drag.
 

Export-facing companies like Container Corp and Concord Biotech remain hit by weak EXIM trade, supply interruptions and tariff pressures. Kotak Bank continues to feel the pinch from a costly deposit base and liquidity swings. Crompton's margins remain under strain from commodity inflation and price-hike resistance, while Axis Bank's wholesale-heavy mix and weaker CASA have compressed NIMs despite healthy deposit growth.

With valuations now mirroring this divergence, the market is increasingly rewarding clear earnings visibility while marking down cyclicals, exporters and businesses grappling with structural headwinds. As FY27 estimates stay largely unchanged at the aggregate level, India's earnings cycle is no longer a single story—it's two sharply different narratives running side by side.

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