OPEC+ Still On Track To Pause Hikes In Early 2026, Delegates Say

OPEC+ nations will probably stick with a decision to pause oil production increases in early 2026 when they meet this weekend, delegates said.

The coalition's online gathering on Sunday remains on track to be straightforward, and simply ratify the policy agreed earlier this month, according to three officials who asked not to be identified as the talks are private. They made similar predictions earlier this week.

Saudi Arabia and its partners chose to pause a run of production hikes during the first quarter of 2026 amid growing signs of a global supply surplus and downward pressure on oil prices. Brent crude futures are trading near $63 a barrel in London.

The gathering will nevertheless happen at an uncertain moment for the oil market, with US President Donald Trump pushing for a peace deal in Ukraine that could — if it materialized — eventually unlock some Russian supply.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies had stunned traders earlier this year by rapidly restarted halted production, in what officials described as a bid to reclaim their share of world oil markets.

With policy for the first quarter already locked in, some OPEC+ officials have said a key focus of Sunday's talks will be a long-term review of members' production capacity.

The alliance is scheduled to hold four meetings in total on Sunday, including a video conference for the eight members engaged in monthly production adjustments.

While the organization's most recent decision to pause further increases reflects a sense of caution, it may still put global oil markets on course for a significant excess. The International Energy Agency in Paris anticipates a record glut, with inventories potentially swelling by as much as 5 million barrels a day in the first quarter.

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