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Systematix Report

NMDC Ltd. has reported robust volumes this year aligning closer to the management's aspiration to deliver 55mt volumes. Over the 9M FY26 period, NMDC has posted 20% and 10% YoY growth in iron ore production and sales, respectively. NMDC remains committed to iron ore capacity expansion to 100mt by 2030 to meet Indian steel industry's growing requirement, and targets 68mt iron ore volumes within next two years.

The company has applied for and is expecting 13mt EC limit enhancement at Deposit 4 and Deposit 13 to achieve the near term target of 68mt.

Systematix remain positive on NMDC based on a robust medium to long term growth outlook and retains its FY28 estimates while moderating FY26/FY27 Ebitda estimates lower by 6% and 5%, respectively, factoring in a mix of revised volume and price assumptions. The brokerage assume iron ore sales of 51mt/55mt/61mt in FY26/FY27/FY28.

Systematix values NMDC at six times FY28E EV/Ebitda with a revised target price of Rs 95/share, implying 16% upside from current market price. Systemtix maintain Buy.

Risks and re-rating levers:

• Weak global iron ore pricing and lower offtake are key risks.
• Demonstration of continued monthly volume growth is likely to be a rerating driver.

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