Nifty To Hit 30,000? HSBC, JPMorgan, Nomura, Others Set Bullish 2026 Target For D-Street

Nifty that has underperformed in comparison to its global peers is likely to touch 30,000 in the coming years as the worst phase of earnings downgrades and macro pressures is behind India, setting the stage for a stronger performance over the next year.

HSBC has pegged the Sensex at 94,000 for 2026, while Morgan Stanley expects it to reach 95,000. For the Nifty index, Jefferies has set a target of 28,300, Bank of America sees it at 29,000, Nomura at 29,300, and JPMorgan stands out as the most bullish with a target of 30,000. These projections reflect confidence in India’s medium-term growth trajectory, even as valuations remain elevated.

HSBC believes Indian equities will be in a stronger position in 2026, noting that the bulk of earnings downgrades now appears to be behind the market. Jefferies echoes this optimism, expecting India’s relative performance versus other emerging markets to improve next year. It also believes the worst for the rupee is over, which could ease a key macro risk that has weighed on sentiment.

Bank of America takes a more cautious view on valuations, arguing that there is limited scope for further multiple expansion. According to BofA, any market upside will need to be earnings-led. It expects cuts to Nifty earnings estimates to moderate, followed by an acceleration in growth as operating conditions stabilise. Nomura’s outlook similarly hinges on a recovery in corporate earnings, driven by easing cost pressures and improving demand across several sectors.

JPMorgan forecasts MSCI India earnings growth of 13% in calendar year 2026 and 14% in 2027. While it acknowledges that Indian equities trade at a premium to global peers, it believes the earnings outlook justifies these valuations. Morgan Stanley is among the most optimistic, expecting a strong bounce in Indian equities over the next 12 months, supported by the strengthening long-term India story and continued government policy support.

Sector and stock preferences vary, highlighting the importance of selectivity. HSBC favours stocks benefiting from industry tailwinds such as Kalyan Jewellers, Mahindra & Mahindra, SBI and ICICI Lombard, while also seeing value in names like Infosys, Phoenix Mills and Marico.

Jefferies is overweight lenders, autos, cement, hospitality, telecom and property, with top picks including Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, TVS Motor, Mahindra & Mahindra and Max Healthcare. Bank of America prefers defensives like telecom and hospitals, while remaining underweight industrials and cement.

Nomura advises avoiding richly valued, narrative-driven stocks and is bullish on financials, IT services, consumer discretionary, real estate, telecom and manufacturing, while staying cautious on staples, infrastructure and capital goods.

JPMorgan is overweight materials, financials, consumer sectors, hospitals, real estate, defence and power, but underweight IT and pharma. Morgan Stanley favours financials, consumer discretionary and industrials, while staying underweight energy, materials, utilities and healthcare.