Nifty In Technical Charts: Bank Breakout Likely

The last update ended with the statement, “Reduce activity and wait for trades to come to you rather than for you to chase them.” Looking at the fact that the market essentially went nowhere for two weeks since the last post, that would have been good advice! Also had suggested that if you were an options seller, it was time to get active, and that too would have worked out nicely as the markets stayed in a range.What really happened can be seen through the small table of Ichimoku scores from Neotrader that I had provided in the last posting. Here is what I had written about its data back then. “Where does this leave us? For one, following the daily trend so far has been great and would have paid off. For the next week, I need to track the daily scores to see if they start peeling off, which would then mean that a correction is setting in. On the other hand, if the daily continues to remain firm, it will then help create a better situation for the weekly score, which, if it starts improving, will signal us to continue the bullish approach.”Here are the updated values of the same table at the end of the week just ended. It is very unusual to see that there has been no change in the scores for the daily and weekly time frames! The bullish count in the weekly stays the same at 21, as does that for the daily at 77. (That shows the power of the scoring matrix built into the software). What has changed, however, is the score in the intraday time frames – with bullish scores falling to 0 from 28 and 21, respectively, last week, and the bearish scores moving sharply higher to 84 from 28 (30 min) and to 42 from 14 (60 min)..This clearly shows us that the markets favoured bearish intraday trades across the last two weeks! But most people are prisoners of a bullish mindset and find short selling difficult. Using software like Neotrader will help improve the efficiency of trading! . Ichimoku is one of my go-to methods for market analysis, and I believe that Neotrader has the most comprehensive dashboard for doing Ichimoku analysis! Refer to the situation in the Bank Nifty in Table 2..Here we can see that the situation has been a lot better, with high scores for daily and weekly already present and continued improvement of the bull scores for 30 and 60 min charts! This clearly spelt out for us that banking was the space for us to have traded in comparison to the Nifty. And within that, PSU banks fared really well, posting a good 6.72% gain for May (of which nearly 4.9% came in last week). Chart 1 shows the situation of the Bank Nifty at the end of the last week..After hitting a high around Apr 23, the index has been in a consolidation mode for the last 25 sessions and now seems set to move higher with the uptick shown on Friday. The chart also shows the RSI and MACD oscillators. Note how the RSI also has poked up past the 60 levels, hinting at some acceleration to come while the MACD also awaits a push past the strength bars. Note as well that throughout the consolidation the two indicators never turned negative at any time – a fact captured by the intraday scores in the Ichimoku table too! Evidently, therefore, the banking space would continue to be the space that may help lead the market if an upmove has to occur in the coming week.Another indicator that I just love using in trading and analysis is the CPR. Table 3 captures the details from Neotrader..This table, again a unique feature of Neotrader, gives you multiple information at one glance about the CPR setup. But before going into those details, let me highlight the Bank Nifty numbers. Note that the top channel levels of the CPR are all underlined, signalling that they are all crossed (this is an auto feature within the program). More, the next resistance (R1) levels are crossed in the day and week charts, and only the month remains a challenge. These are all spot index levels, and in the futures, the monthly level is just about challenged (there is a premium of about 300 points over the spot for the bank nifty at the end of the week).In contrast, the Nifty is not acquitting itself so well. However, the monthly TC stands crossed and if the spot Nifty can haul itself above 24865 in the coming week, then it can also fare decently. So, with these two tables, you've got all bases covered for views and levels!The same table also gives you the CPR width in percentage, and we can note that, at around 3%, both indices are showing a ‘normal’ width for the month, which means that there is no specific bias in direction. But the fact that the weekly CPR width is a narrow 0.3% would suggest some breakout possibilities coming up next week in both indices! Hence, be ready.Finally, the table also gives you a CPR score, and here too the Bank Nifty is placed solidly with trend possibilities already signalled (a score of 2 and beyond is needed for a trend). The Nifty needs some work to improve its CPR score levels, so it may take a day or two for trends to kick in.The S1 levels of the CPR mentioned in the table can all be used as stop-loss levels if one creates long positions.Please note that in this entire discussion of the CPR I have not used the chart at all. This is the power of Neotrader – it reduces all signals, across different time frames, into a single readable table that tells all the stories. All the other pages are also designed this way. If you want to give it a whirl, check out our website (www.neotrader.in).Now, let's come to the actionable part. Since we are forming an opinion that the market may stage a breakout higher in the coming week and for it to be led by the Bank Nifty, what could be the levels that would be most important to signal to us that it is indeed happening? For that I would take recourse to Camarilla pivot levels. Table 4 shows the relevant levels for the coming week..Levels boxed under H3 need to be crossed for a breakout to be confirmed, while levels boxed under L2 can be considered as a warning that the expected breakout may not happen. Remember that failure of bullish signals is more bearish than bearish signals themselves, and hence it is important to have a definition of those as well.Moving on from there, here was one space that was sizzling in recent times – defence. Chart 2 shows the Nifty Defence index..Is that a hint of an evening star right on top? That too, as it taps into the upper channel of the pitchfork? While the mood is the brightest around this sector just now, the charts are advising a bit of caution. Please take note.Other sector index charts are not really showing any notable signals and would therefore be subject to intra-week pushes and pulls of the stocks. Of course, if the main indices were to stage a breakout higher, then there may be an overall positive bias that shall be rendered.So, we await the signals in the main indices, follow them if we get them or go against them if we have a failure. The latter would be disappointing after this many days of waiting. It would have to be event-based for it to happen. Or some sort of a surprise. Can’t really factor those. Trade with caution.

Nifty In Technical Charts: Bank Breakout Likely

After hitting a high around Apr 23, the index has been in a consolidation mode for the last 25 sessions and now seems set to move higher with the uptick shown on Friday.

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