The choppy movement continued in the Nifty 50 on Monday, as the index remained largely confined to the first hour's trading range. Volumes were relatively strong during the opening and closing hours, while activity remained subdued through most of the session.
The index moved within a narrow 110-point range and eventually ended with a modest gain of 13.15 points, or 0.05%, at 24,583.80. The lack of follow-through on either side reflected continued indecision among market participants.
Doji Formation Signals Indecision
Monday's price action resulted in the formation of a Doji candle, with the index closing near its opening level. The Nifty once again found support around the 8-EMA, indicating that short-term support remains intact.
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The last two sessions have created an important trading range between 24,511 and 24,630. A decisive breakout on either side of this range could provide the next directional cue.
A close above 24,630 may strengthen the bullish setup and open the door for a move towards the previous high of 24,774. On the downside, a close below the 24,516–24,511 support zone would weaken the near-term structure and could trigger a deeper correction towards the August 4, 2026 low of 23,428.
Momentum Indicators Remain Constructive
The RSI remained largely flat at 60.21, suggesting that momentum has neither strengthened nor weakened materially. On the hourly chart, the Nifty continues to trade above the moving average ribbon, while the MACD remains above the zero line. Both indicators continue to favour the bulls, although a breakout from the current range is needed for stronger momentum to emerge.
Focus on Stocks Showing Relative Strength
With the benchmark index stuck in a narrow range, stock-specific opportunities remain more attractive. Midcap stocks continue to outperform, making it important to focus on counters displaying strong Relative Strength and higher participation. Until the Nifty breaks out of the 24,511–24,630 range, selective stock-picking may remain a better approach than taking an aggressive directional view on the index.
Stock to Watch: Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX)
MCX has broken out of a triangle pattern on the upside, closing decisively above the descending trendline. The breakout was supported by higher-than-average volumes, adding strength to the move. The stock also formed a higher low and a strong bullish candle, indicating improving buying interest.
The price has moved firmly above the 20-DMA, while the Bollinger Bands have started to expand, suggesting a possible rise in volatility after the recent consolidation.
Momentum indicators have also turned favourable. The MACD has generated a fresh bullish signal, while the RSI has moved above its previous swing high and strengthened above the 50 mark. The Stochastic RSI has also triggered a bullish crossover, and the Elder Impulse System has printed a strong bullish bar.
Overall, the technical setup remains positive following the breakout from the triangle pattern. A sustained move above Rs 2,790 could open the way for Rs 2,890– Rs 2,940. Traders may maintain a stop loss at Rs 2,700.
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