- Laurence Balanco projects Nifty's long-term upside target at 37,375–37,400 points
- Nifty is in its third structural bull cycle since the 2020 pandemic lows
- Midcap Index forms a cup-and-handle pattern near 59,967–60,925 resistance zone
CLSA's technical strategist Laurence Balanco has reiterated his long-term bullish roadmap for the Nifty, projecting an ultimate upside target of 37,375–37,400, even as near-term price action remains choppy. His analysis places India's benchmark index firmly within an extended structural bull cycle that began off the pandemic lows of 2020.
According to Balanco, the Nifty 50 has already completed two major bull market cycles since the 2001 lows: the first from 2001 to 2008, and the second from 2008 to 2020. The third cycle, now unfolding from the 2020 lows, appears to mirror the nearly decade-long duration of its predecessors. On that basis, he argues the current uptrend still has a few years in it, implying over 59% upside from current levels.
On the daily chart, the Nifty continues to grind higher in a staggered fashion following the breakout in April from a February–April double-bottom pattern. However, momentum has yet to develop into a decisive, impulsive up-move.
Balanco flags the 50-day moving average as a key tactical line in the sand. A close below this trend gauge would pull the index back into its June–October trading corridor, defined by 24,337–24,432 on the lower band and 25,448–25,666 on the upper band.
Holding above the 50DMA keeps the bullish bias intact, but the Nifty still awaits a forceful breakout that would set the stage for a sustained 2026 rally.
While the Nifty's breakout remains tentative, the NSE Midcap Index is showing a far more compelling technical structure. Since topping out in September 2024, the index has carved out a well-defined cup-and-handle pattern beneath the 59,967–60,925 resistance zone.
This consolidation closely resembles the accumulation that unfolded from 2021 to 2023, which became the platform for a more than 70% rally. A confirmed breakout above this resistance zone would open the gates to a powerful rally with an ultimate upside target of 77,300–77,400.
Balanco's analysis underscores a dual narrative: the Nifty remains in a long-term structural uptrend, with the bull cycle potentially stretching several more years and culminating far above current levels, while the Midcap Index appears much closer to a decisive breakout that could unleash another significant multi-quarter advance.
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