The Indian stock market indices extended their losses on Thursday, with the Nifty 50 slipping below the 22,400 mark and trading at its lowest level since April 2026. The index is also on track to record its eighth consecutive weekly decline, a rare streak that was last seen in 2001.
At around 1:20 PM, the Sensex was down 839.35 points, or 1.16%, at 71,640.94, while the Nifty 50 declined 280.35 points, or 1.24%, to 22,340.10.
The latest selloff has been driven by persistent foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, elevated global bond yields, rising crude oil prices and concerns over tighter monetary policy. A weakening rupee, which crossed the 96 per US dollar mark, has added to investor nervousness.
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What History Says About Eight-Week Losing Streaks
According to Sudeep Shah, Vice President – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, an eight-week losing streak for the Nifty is a rare occurrence. Since 1992, the index has witnessed such prolonged declines only six times previously. The longest streaks were eight weeks in 1993 and nine weeks in 2001.
Historically, the end of such losing streaks has often been followed by a rebound. Across the six previous instances, the Nifty delivered an average return of around 11% over one month, 12% over three months, 14% over six months and 39% over 12 months.
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The index was higher one month and 12 months after the streak ended in all six instances. Three-month returns were positive in five of the six cases, while six-month returns were positive in three, Shah noted.
However, he cautioned that the 12-month average is skewed by exceptionally strong rebounds in 1993 and 2020. The median 12-month return of around 23% may therefore provide a more balanced historical reference.
Why The Current Backdrop Matters
Previous episodes had very different triggers. The 1992 and 1993 declines were linked to the Harshad Mehta scam, while the 2001 selloff coincided with the dot-com bust, the Ketan Parekh scam and the aftermath of 9/11.
In 2020, the Covid-19 shock triggered a sharp liquidity-driven selloff that was followed by aggressive monetary and fiscal support.
The 2008 episode offers a different precedent. Crude oil was close to $145 a barrel, inflation was elevated and the global financial crisis was unfolding. Although the Nifty rebounded 9.5% in the first month after the losing streak ended, it subsequently declined 10% over three months and 22% over six months.
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Current Fall And Key Technical Levels
The Nifty has declined over 9% over the past eight weeks, compared with falls of roughly 22% in 2008 and 33% in 2020. The current decline has been more gradual rather than a capitulation-style selloff.
The index retested its 200-week moving average (200-WMA) at 22,606 on September 29, currently trades below the same. It last tested this zone in June 2020.
“The 22,600-22,400 band is now the most crucial zone. Historically, a decisive breakdown below the 200-WMA has preceded major corrections, in 2008-09 and 2020, with falls of roughly 38% and 27%. A sustained break would signal deterioration in long-term market structure and open the door to a deeper correction. If the zone holds, a pullback becomes far more likely,” said Shah.
Seasonality could offer some support, with the Nifty 50 ending the October series higher in 14 of the past 19 years. However, global factors remain critical. A cooling in crude oil, easing US bond yields and a weaker dollar could help stabilise sentiment, while further deterioration in these factors could keep pressure on equities.
“With only six historical data points, treat this as context, not a forecast. Staggered accumulation is more prudent than trying to call the bottom,” said Shah.
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