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Motilal Oswal Report
Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd.'s tractor volumes surged 65% YoY to 24.5k units (versus out estimate 21.5k units). We have factored in 6.5% volume growth for FY21E, implying 14% residual growth or 29.4k units.
Escorts Ltd.'s tractor dispatches grew approximately 80% YoY to 7.3k units (versus our estimate 5.9k units) in August 2020.
Domestic sales grew 79% YoY, while exports surged approximately 90% YoY. We are estimating approximately 13% growth in volumes for FY21E, implying 18.5% residual growth or monthly run-rate of approximately 9.5k units.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.'s August 2020 wholesales were up approximately 17% YoY to 124.6k units (versus our estimate 126.4k units).
Domestic volumes grew by approximately 20% YoY to 116.7k units (versus our estimate 118k units).
As expected, mini (up 95% YoY) and compact (up 12%) saw good recovery. Surprisingly, utility vehicles also saw strong growth of 13.5% YoY, despite higher competitive intensity.
Hero MotoCorp Ltd.'s volumes grew 7.6% YoY to 584.5k units (versus our estimate 597.7k units).
We estimate volumes to decline 9.4% in FY21E, implying residual growth of 18.8% or run-rate of 591.9k units.
Eicher Motors Ltd.'s Royal Enfield (RE) dispatches declined approximately 5% YoY to 50.1k units (in-line with estimate).
Domestic retails were broadly similar to wholesales. We estimate RE volumes to decline 10.4% in FY21E, implying residual growth of 17.4% or run-rate of 68k units.
We are hopeful of a step-up in volumes, driven by the upcoming new platform launch in September-October 2020.
TVS Motor Company Ltd.'s wholesales declined 1.1% to 287.4k units (versus our estimate 287.1k units).
Two-Wheeler volumes were flat YoY to 277.2k units. Domestic Two-Wheelers were also flat YoY, whereas Two-Wheeler exports grew 5% YoY.
For Two-Wheelers, we are estimating FY21 volumes to decline 11%, implying residual growth of 18% or run-rate of approximately 280.5 units.
Ashok Leyland Ltd.'s wholesale dispatches stood at 6,325 units (versus our estimate 6,216 units), down 31.5% YoY.
Medium and heavy commercial vehicle volumes declined approximately 51.6% YoY to 2,589 units (versus estimate 2,140 units).
Light commercial vehicle volumes declined 4% YoY to 3,736 units (versus our estimate 4,076 units).
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