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Systematix Report
Systematix has revised its target price on Lupin Ltd. to Rs 2,408 (Rs 2454 earlier) on FY28E EPS with a multiple pf 25x and retain 'Hold' and lowers its EPS forecast for FY28 by 2%.
The near-term earnings growth may be a challenge for Lupin as they should see impact of competition in their largest portfolio product (gTolvaptan) in FY27.
Potentially gMirabegron may also see competition in FY27 (brokerage's current expectation is H2-FY28) However Systematix sees recovery in growth post FY28 as they monetize their biosimilar pipeline (Pegfilgrastim, ranibizumab, etanercept) and get additional approvals in the respiratory inhaler space (gDulera).
Company is also looking to file other respiratory inhalers like Spiriva Respimat, Symbicort, Advair HFA which could be monetized over the next two-four years.
Nirmal Bang expects Lupin to deliver revenue/Ebitda/PAT growth of 4%/-8%/-13% respectively over FY26-28E.
Lupin Q4 Earnings Highlights
Lupin reported Q4 FY26 revenue of Rs 74,747 million, up 32% YoY and 4% QoQ. Ebitda at Rs 21,711 mn, surged by 68% YoY and down 1% QoQ.
Ebitda margin at 29%, expanded by 625 bps YoY and down by 178 bps QoQ. Lupin reported profit after tax of Rs 14,603 mn, showing a growth of 89% YoY and reduced 24% QoQ. PAT margin stood at 19.5%, up 591 bps YoY and down by 314 bps QoQ.
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