The La Nina phenomena, which gives a boost to Southwest Monsoon and was expected to give a good rainfall in September, has been delayed, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday, even as it stuck to its initial forecast of “above normal” rainfall this season.
IMD Director General KJ Ramesh said as far as India is considered the “detrimental” El-Nino, which affected the Indian rains last year has reached a neutral stage.
The El Nino which was detrimental to the Indian monsoon has faded and reached a neutral level. In the initial stages we were expecting La Nina to start, but it has been delayed now.General K J Ramesh, Director, India Meteorological Department
He, however, refused to make any amends to the forecast. Skymet, a private forecasting agency, has already downgraded its forecast from “above normal” rainfall to “normal”.
“We have made a forecast of 106 percent of the Long Period Average with the model error of plus or minus four per cent. So, we are on the track,” Ramesh added.
In the IMD parlance, 96-104 percent of the Long Period Average is considered as normal rainfall and anywhere between 104 to 110 is termed as above normal. Rainfall above 110 percent of the LPA is considered as excess.
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