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Motilal Oswal Report
As expected, the economic impact of the second Covid-19 wave is about 2.1% of gross domestic product in FY22F, about a fifth of 10-11% output loss from the first Covid-19 wave in FY21.
When the Government of India published its Q1 FY22 real GDP data at the end of August 2021, the limited impact of the second Covid-19 wave was confirmed.
With such a small adverse economic impact, the share of pent-up demand in the economic recovery in H2 FY22 will also be limited.
Accordingly, we keep our nominal/real GDP growth forecasts largely unchanged for FY22/FY23, lower than market consensus.
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